cfforum

I cannot wait for Wednesday's stage! There is a great battle shaping up between MIchael Rassmussen and Alberto Contador; Contador launching four huge attacks on todays final climb, then two more on the approach to the finish line, and Rassmussen defending the Yellow Jersey by finding the wheel of Contador on each occassion.

Man can Contador hit the gas hard on an 8% grade, Rassmussen not able to match the quick accellerations, but certainly able to close the distance quickly if methodically.

Wednesday stage 16 has two Category 1 climbs and two HC (Beyond Category) climbs over 218.5k culminating atop the Col d'Aubisque. With Vino loosing 28 minutes yesterday it's hard to see how he's going to be contending. Levi doesn't appear to have the legs to attack in the hills, nor does Kloden or Evans. If Contador and Rassmussen run away from the GC guys again on the big climbs of Stage 16 it might start to look like a 2 man race.

Bear in mind that Contador was only 34 seconds slower than Kloden, and 64 seconds slower than Cadel Evans in the 54k time trial on stage 13. The stage 19 time trial is 55k (although I don't what the difference in the terrain will be).

Contador road just 37 seconds faster than Rassmussen on Stage 13, so expect him to continue attacking Rassmussen in an attempt to close up the time gap before Saturdays Stage 19 Time Trial.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic here but it feels like Contador could dig a LOT deeper and completely bury Rasmussen if he truly wanted to - his accelerations seem so effortless and it's hard to imagine that he could not sustain one of them for awhile longer to create distance. It was almost as if he was playing with Rasmussen. Am I missing something?

Contador is explosive, no doubt. Rassmussen has proven himself as the dominate climber in the tour since the departure of Richard Viranque. It's up to Contador to take THE jersey (the Yellow one) off of Michael's back. Exploding off the front like that puts you in the red in a hurry and I think maybe Contador's attacks yesterday may cost him even more than it cost Rassmussen.

Rassmussen has done the Tour before, he knows how hard it is to make the big climbs day after day after day. He may have been metering out his efforts; catching Contador after each attack, but using less energy to do it than Contador was using to make the break.

All that being said, I hope Contador rips his legs off on Wednesday, opens a huge gap, and rides into the yellow jersey. It's about time that Levi does an early attack that forces Rassmussen to chase, then Popo can lead out Contador later in the day after Rassmussen has been put into distress. In my opinion, it's over for Levi except for the fading possibility that he might make a run at the third podium spot.

No more Kloden - makes the race a little more interesting. It's really
Rassmussen
Contador
Evans

and possible runner up Levi - unless Levi has a rabbit he can pull out of the hat.

If Disco decides to go "all in" for Contador, then Levi may be put in the position of having to work for him. If that happens, then the gamble is that Contador can deliver in the ITT....which is questionable, but no worse than Rasmussen.

Johan said in an interview that Disco's "best chance for the podium" was Alberto. But you have to wonder if that was gamesmanship on his part.
The next stage has potential - and if someone slips off the front early enough, you could see a big solo come home again. They would never let Levi go but it may be interesting.

I'm not so sure about counting out Contador in the TT, Evans was only 64 seconds faster than him in the first TT. Evans is 31 seconds ahead of Contador in the GC standings; without taking too much of a flyer I'm going to guess that Contador will need at least 90 seconds on Evans before the final TT to have a good chance.

I think it's a reasonable possibility for Alberto to get that time on the next stage, because he's at least that much better of a climber than Cadel. Unfortunately, since it's not just two guys out racing each other, there are many other factors to consider.

It will be most interesting to me to see how Discovery uses Levi tomorrow. Will he be working for a GC podium spot, or working to get Alberto into the yellow jersey. Is Disco looking to get two riders on the podium, or one into yellow?

Interestingly enough, if Levi goes for a podium position and doesn't get it, it could cost Contador the yellow jersey, and with Cadel 1:24 ahead of Levi, and seemingly riding much stronger in the mountains, it's a long stretch for me to believe Levi is going to have a reasonable shot at the podiuim at this point

If Alberto rides well tomorrow, he's looking very good for at least a podium finish. For him to get into yellow he's going to need the team to put Rassmussen in distress early, or he's going to have to pound him out mano-a-mano, but I don't see Rassmussen giving up that much time on a climbing day unless there are extenuating circumstances...which there are often are.

Basically, I expect all kinds of fireworks to be going off tomorrow. It's the last day in the Pyranees and the last good opportunity for contenders to make something happen before the TT. I'll be glued to Versus over an early breakfast and I'm expecting an Armstrong/Patanni-like battle on the Col d'Aubisque by the end of the day; just Alberto and Michael swingin' the 8oz gloves.

My prediction is that Contador takes some time out of Rassmussen, not enough to get the yellow jersey, enought, however, to make the TT incredibly dramatic! But what do I know?

I believe that the time gaps on Saturday's time trial will be larger for Rasmussen then last Saturday's time trial for a couple of reasons. First, the bad weather slowed everyone down, keeping the time gaps smaller. For example, basketball teams will use a similar tactic of slowing the game down in order to keep the scoring opportunities to a minnimum for the better team, keeping the score closer. I hope that makes sense. But more importantly, last Saturday's time trial did have quite a bit of climbing in it relatively, and since everyone had to go slow on the descents and corners, the hills were the one place riders could go all out. Of course, Rasmussen is at less of an advantage on the hills going all out.

But as you look at this coming Saturday's time trial, it is pancake flat. This will play more to the true time trialist specialists and should make it harder for Rasmussen to post a respectable time. Of course, Pantani, the last pure climber to win the race (and probably on dope during it) was 3rd in the final time trial. But don't forget either that Rasmussen is a former mountain bike racer at the highest levels. For those who have done extensive time trialiing, and extensive mountain bike racing, you'll find plenty of similarities between the two events.

Another Great stage today - I was wrong - Contador has used all his climbing bullets and Rasmussen showed he had the legs in the end. Levi was VERY impressive and closed on Cadel. Looks like Alberto now has 2:53 on Cadel and that's sizeable, but Cadel is a good time trialist. Levi has a better opportunity since he's now only 56 seconds behind Cadel and I think he can beat him in an ITT.

I agree with Mark's comment about Rasmussen and the ITT - I don't think he can do as well this time as he did last. I don't see him crashing multiple times but it's entirely possible for him to lose several minutes to Levi, Cadel and Alberto even if he puts in what would be for him a solid performance.

I have to say though - I am not per-se a Discovery fan. I would like to see Levi do well, but it's completely frosts me that Rasmussen is even in this race given the fact that he failed to report in twice and was warned 4 times about it. I think the TDF and the UCI have to either get tough and stay tough or let up completely. They don't appear to be applying their own standards consistently. That is probably what led to Astana being in the tour and we see how that went. There were pre-race allegations about Kloden and even Vino that were ignored. While I think you have to let due process run it's course, you see the inconsistency when they prevent Petacci from participating for using a medication he's got a waiver to use, but allow Rasmussen to ignore the rules and participate anyways. They are never going to get out from under this cloud until they get consistent.

Don't sweat it Davey, Rassmussen will test positive if he wins the Tour - I think that's policy now. The next time you see the #1 at a prolog of the Tour will be on ESPN Classics.

I haven't had a chance to write my usual updates, but what does anyone suspect? Astana is a blend of Liberty and T-Mobile ex-staff and riders. Both of which contained systematic doping policies and programs. Plus, he is working with Dr. Ferrari, and has Godefroot as a special consultant. Then, leading up to the Tour, two of his top domestiques come under heavy doping allegations (Mozellini, and Kessler). No one likes a cliche', but when there is smoke, there is fire. It is pretty plain and simple.

Levi was awesome today, too bad he can't accelerate. He says he is getting stronger and that has shown. Maybe a surprise in the time trial to get himself on the podium? I actually think the odds are better for Rasmusssen to fail a test then Levi riding the time trial of his life.

Evans and Contador will be the two heavy favorites next year. Interesting are the parallels between this Tour and the 98 Tour when Pantani won. Time will tell if Rasmussen's reputation continues to parallel Pantani's as well.